Abu Faraj Al Libbi
Last week's arrest of Abu Faraj Al Libbi (which coincided with my dream mentioned in an earlier post) was, in my estimation, the biggest news story since the pope's death. The U.S. reaction, and particularly the response of the CIA and Homeland Security Department, bear very close watching over the next several weeks. While the potential exists that information gleaned from Libbi will lead to the capture or killing of OBL, I think the more likely and immediate result is a major breakthrough in the United States' knowledge about the state of Al Qaeda. The combined facts that Libbi was so close to the top of the network and that his captors managed to pick up his notebook make it all but certain that he will be a valuable intelligence asset for the U.S. Here are two possible government reactions and how I think we might interpret them.
1. Renewed worry among goverment officials about attacks in the U.S. - This is, I think, fairly likely. Look in particular for an Orange Alert similar to that which was issued over the summer. If that happens, I think we should take it as a serious indication that Al Qaeda is alive and well, and capable of striking the U.S. at home. The move would be a particularly ominous sign, given the fact that the government will likely be extremely wary of needlessly warning us of yet another non-materializing threat. If an alert comes out of this event, it is likely to be both more credible and more specific than previous ones. And so should our response.
2. No change in government's public posture - This would likely serve as a strong indication that Al Qaeda is seriously weakened and operating largely without the command and control of its top leaders. If the arrest of the #3 guy does not lead to any information about new attacks, after all, it seems hard to believe that Al Qaeda could be operating at anywhere near its former capacity. Of course, a lack of change in the government's posture could simply indicate Libbi's ability to resist interrogation and conceal information. But given the powers of the CIA to trace down the associates and hiding places of people they've captured, I'm willing to bet we'll get more than a little bit of useful information out of him.
Bottom line: what the government learns and does over the coming weeks is going to be very telling about where we stand in the war against Al Qaeda. Let's hope for option #2.
1. Renewed worry among goverment officials about attacks in the U.S. - This is, I think, fairly likely. Look in particular for an Orange Alert similar to that which was issued over the summer. If that happens, I think we should take it as a serious indication that Al Qaeda is alive and well, and capable of striking the U.S. at home. The move would be a particularly ominous sign, given the fact that the government will likely be extremely wary of needlessly warning us of yet another non-materializing threat. If an alert comes out of this event, it is likely to be both more credible and more specific than previous ones. And so should our response.
2. No change in government's public posture - This would likely serve as a strong indication that Al Qaeda is seriously weakened and operating largely without the command and control of its top leaders. If the arrest of the #3 guy does not lead to any information about new attacks, after all, it seems hard to believe that Al Qaeda could be operating at anywhere near its former capacity. Of course, a lack of change in the government's posture could simply indicate Libbi's ability to resist interrogation and conceal information. But given the powers of the CIA to trace down the associates and hiding places of people they've captured, I'm willing to bet we'll get more than a little bit of useful information out of him.
Bottom line: what the government learns and does over the coming weeks is going to be very telling about where we stand in the war against Al Qaeda. Let's hope for option #2.
posted by From on High at 2:15 AM
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